What You Need to Know about the Recent Surge in COVID-19 Cases

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 was first reported in December 2019 by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in China and has since spread worldwide to reach global pandemic status. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020. As of June 29, there were more than 10.2 million confirmed cases and in excess of 500,000 deaths worldwide.

While around 130,000 new daily cases worldwide were reported on June 20, that number increased to more than 189,000 in less than one week. Countries have implemented gradual reopening policies. However, this recent surge suggests the importance of exercising caution and taking preventative measures such as wearing masks.

Worldwide Daily Record (June 28)

The June 28 tally of more than 189,000 new daily cases, as recorded by the WHO, marked a new record for confirmed cases in a 24-hour period. The prior record of 183,000 was recorded days earlier. Daily deaths worldwide as a result of COVID-19, however, peaked at 8,470 on April 17 and had been below 6,000 every day during the week prior to June 28.

Despite the reduction in daily deaths, the increase in cases has been concerning, particularly in Brazil and the United States, which led the way in daily new cases for the June 28 tally with more than 46,800 and 44,400, respectively. India ranked third with almost 20,000 new cases.

Record High in 7 States (June 28)

The US led all countries with more than 2.6 million confirmed COVID-19 cases as of June 29. This was more than twice the amount of confirmed cases in Brazil. Moreover, the US also accounted for more than one-quarter of all COVID-19-related deaths worldwide.

More concerning is the fact that many states began experiencing a surge in COVID-19 cases as they began relaxing social distancing restrictions. In fact, during the weekend of June 27 and 28, seven states, including Florida and Tennessee, recorded new highs in confirmed COVID-19 cases. John Cooper, mayor of Nashville, Tennessee, issued a mandatory face mask order beginning June 29 to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

Only Two States in Decline (June 28)

Only two states in the US as of June 28 recorded a decline in COVID-19 cases from the week prior. In addition to a record high in seven states, rises were reported in 36 states. Only Rhode Island and Connecticut reported a decline in new cases. New York, which was once the epicenter of the virus in the US, reported its fewest deaths since March 15 and had only 616 cases. Florida, which many experts contend is the country's next epicenter, had more than 9,500 positive cases on June 27.

"As a doctor, a scientist, an epidemiologist, I can tell you with 100 percent certainty that in most states where you're seeing an increase, it is a real increase," said former CDC Director Tom Frieden during an interview on Fox News on June 28. "It is not more tests; it is more spread of the virus." Frieden noted that increases in death totals won't be noticed for about a month due to a lag between infections and deaths. He estimated there could be an additional 15,000 deaths in the US by the end of July.

PPE Shortage

The drastic increases in COVID-19 cases has once again made personal protective equipment (PPE) a major concern in the US. The volunteer-led organization #GetUsPPE reported a surge in requests for PPE equipment in late June, particularly in Texas.

The state has had to pause plans to reopen as a result of record increases in hospitalizations. According to #GetUsPPE co-founder Dr. Megan Ranney, health facilities in Texas requested fewer than 2,000 pieces of PPE during the week of June 15 to 21. That number rose to more than 220,000 the following week.

Executives of Florida's Service Employees International Union have also alleged a major shortage in PPE equipment. One of its vice presidents, Jude Derisme, alleges that hospitals in the state stopped making staff wear N95 masks for a short period of time prior to the recent surge in cases.

Similar shortages have been reported in other states. Washington Governor Jay Inslee, for example, recently claimed to have attempted to purchase $400 million worth of PPE with less than 10 percent of all orders filled.

Study of Asymptomatic Individuals

Unlike most other countries, Sweden's approach to fighting COVID-19 has been to develop herd immunity by allowing its citizens to get infected and fight the disease. While it's hard to measure the efficacy of this strategy, a recent study discounted the notion that herd immunity even applies to COVID-19.

The study, which was conducted in China with results published in Nature, found that asymptomatic individuals had limited, if any, detectable antibodies weeks after infection. This means they may not even be capable of developing lasting immunity and could conceivably become infected again. Moreover, even though they had no outward symptoms, 70 percent of study participants showed lung abnormalities known as "ground-glass opacities" in X-rays.