Is COVID-19 Here to Stay? This Is What We Know Now

After nearly six months the public is still dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, now in even greater numbers than ever before. Not only back, it shows no signs of slowing down. People all over the world are asking the question, when will this virus end?

Though some public officials early on claimed the virus would simply ‘disappear’ on its own during the summer, that clearly has not been the case. White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci has now publicly stated he finds it unlikely that COVID-19 will ever be fully eradicated.

This disease is different from SARS, which was quickly contained. COVID-19 is extremely efficient in its spread. Though it is possible we could eventually bring the virus down to manageable levels with proper safety precautions like masks and social distancing, the truth is COVID-19 may be here to stay.

Endemic vs. Pandemic

The study of epidemiology has four main levels for disease outbreaks, measuring the distance it has spread and the number of people infected. These levels include sporadic, with infrequent and irregular occurrence; endemic, with a fairly constant but generally low-level prevalence within a specific geographical area; epidemic, with a sudden increase in number of cases in a particular area; and pandemic, which is an epidemic that has spread over a vast geographical area and to a large number of people.

After the initial epidemic, the coronavirus was quickly upgraded to a pandemic as it began to spread across the globe. Now, experts are cautioning that this might not be the end. It’s possible that COVID-19 is here to stay as an endemic disease. Endemic diseases occur regularly and with consistency throughout a population. There are a number of diseases that we know well that can be classified as endemic. These include malaria, chickenpox, and African sleeping sickness in particular areas.

Seasonal Disease?

Many have suggested that this coronavirus could take the path of many other similar coronaviruses we already know of that cause the common cold. Like the seasonal flu and the common cold, these respiratory diseases typically fluctuate with the seasons, becoming more prevalent during the colder months of the year and showing up much less during the summer. Although the flu is not technically classified as endemic, it is predictable, occurring with seasonal regularity and with preventative measures in place (vaccines and antivirals).

It’s too soon to call COVID-19 an endemic disease, but it is a real possibility. With a vaccine in place, new treatments, and preventative measures taken, it might still be possible to eliminate it entirely.